I know I never promised that this would be a particularly regular note, but I always feel a bit bad when it’s been a few weeks between pieces - not least because my weekend reminder below gets unceremoniously dismissed.
Three notes in the last two months probably is about as infrequent as they’ve been, but in all honesty it’s been a bit of a bonkers two months (and not necessarily the good bonkers!) I’ll hopefully talk about one of the reasons for the bonkersness in a bit more detail next week, and hopefully see a return to regular(ish) scheduled programming soon.
But I wanted to write something this morning because some good things have been happening in the world and in as messy a world as we live in now, where it feels like we’re constantly bouncing from one crisis and once-in-a-generation event to another, it’s nice to be able to stop and take stock of the bright spots in the world.
Numero uno - there’s kind of a ceasefire in Iran, ish? Well, at least both sides have come to an agreement to stop the fighting, which has to be seen as a good thing, right? It hasn’t really changed anything fundamentally about the threat from Iran, but it has stopped the bombing and reopened the Strait of Hormuz (I’m choosing to ignore the fact that the Strait is now again closed after some continued fighting in Lebanon - we’re looking for the silver linings this morning). Cue further deaths avoided and the start of a long return to normality in global trade. This is good for the world, and perhaps enough of a lesson to dissuade any similar expeditions for a little bit. We can but hope.
Numero dos - Andy won in Makerfield! I always hesitate before commenting on politics in these notes, but I have a sweeping exception for matters related to Reform or Restore or their ilk, because frankly the prospect of their governing of Britain is a bit of an existential threat to me. It does also have a huge impact on all of our lives, and so I think it’s worth discussing. One of my rules for healthy political conversations is that I’m only ever trying to explain my point of view and understand others. It’s not my job to try and convince you why mine is better - you’re entitled to disagree.
Politics is always messy but I do like politicians who manage to get stuff done amongst that, and even more so when it’s stuff that actually matters to people. There’s a reason people in Greater Manchester love Andy Burnham so much - he does things that touch people’s lives and that they can point to and say “yeah he’s a good one that Andy, we’ve got X now because of him”. And as messy as politics is, if you can get as many people in the country saying stuff like that, you win elections and make the country better.
In writing this note, I read (on Wikipedia, so pinch of salt) that Andy Burnham was responsible for launching the first phase of a National Care Service at the tail-end of the Brown government. It was exactly what it sounds like - a service that gave elderly and disabled people social care that was free at the point of use and funded through taxation. The coalition government scrapped it. I wonder how different our country would have been today if that had been kept on. The current Labour government is trying to bring it back and are currently trying to work out how it would work in practise - they really ought to communicate this stuff better.
The by-election itself is a tricky one to analyse - yes there was a massive swing back to Labour from the local elections, but people regularly use the locals as a bit of a protest vote. People also didn’t really see Starmer’s Labour and Andy as the same thing here - it was a vote for Andy, not a vote for Labour (and the campaign materials said as much!). My main reflection on this, especially after the local elections, is that it’s really restored my faith in an age-old belief that when push comes to shove, when it really matters, the Great British Public will stand up for what’s right. That makes me happy.
And for anyone who wants to read what I think about this with respect to the impending Labour leadership dilemma, I’ve included a note I wrote to someone else in the postscript. Full disclosure - I am a Labour Party member, hence the all the “we”.
And finally, numero tres - the World Cup is on! Now I’m not the biggest football fan in the world, but I can appreciate a good match and the brilliant energy that comes with the World Cup. Admittedly, the build up hasn’t felt as exciting to me this year, but after England’s first game this week, it feels like everyone is talking about it and it’s brought a lot of joy into the world.
And I’m sure there will be more, but my favourite social aspect of the cup so far has been the brilliance of the Scottish fans descending on Boston and other US cities. I’ve seen some great bits on social media about bagpipes, the legalisation of haggis and Scottish fans adopting American fans - it’s a great bit of craic and to me, the perfect encapsulation of everything good the World Cup brings to the world. It also does bring me a lot of joy to see Panini (the people who make the football cards) sponsor Coca-Cola for the tournament. I have no idea why, it just really does.
Anyway that’s all for today folks! Have a great weekend, get yourselves out in the sun (with suncream!) and enjoy the scorching 35 degree heat that this week is meant to see.
RH
PS - Makerfield in the wider context
You asked for thoughts on Andy winning in Makerfield. I have many and so here they are. Some on the wider situation first, then specifically on Makerfield.
Fundamentally, I do think Andy triggering this by-election with the intention of replacing the Prime Minister was unnecessary and not in the spirit of long-term leadership that the country needs. I would have preferred a natural return to normality after the local elections.
But at the same time, the local elections were a sign of discontentment with the normality, and if you're going to majorly change tack, you should accept the mistakes and do it sooner rather than later.
This Labour government needs to be a success, because the alternatives (Reform, harder right Tory, minority govt) would not be good for the country. In an increasingly unstable world, we need a strong Labour Party to govern and guide the nation through increasingly turbulent times.
The pulse of the nation seems to suggest that Keir is not the man to do that and that his premiership will not result in reelection, and so, in that instance, perhaps short-term political noise of replacing the leader is worth the long-term benefits.
And I do think there's a serious benefit to having a fresh brand come in and effectively give us a new government bounce. It would provide a useful separation from the unpopular parts of this government (winter fuel, poor communications etc) whilst giving us a nice way to shout about the wins, which we don't do often or well enough.
But we have to get it right. We can't afford to do this again before the next election, and I think the cleanest way of doing that is if Andy becomes leader and Prime Minister.
I think that's a great opportunity to fix the things that haven't been working and really bring our drive and ambition to the country. People want things to happen and we can make them happen and tell them they're happening. I honestly think it's that simple - the bar is so low that if we get that right, we win reelection.
The competition is poor and I honestly think we should start using Unite the Kingdom as one of our own slogans - yes, we're going to Unite the Kingdom, and we mean the whole Kingdom and everyone in it. We should take that back and I think there's something powerful there (I can write more on this if of interest).
As for the rest, I don't think Wes should be or would be a very good Prime Minister (this may be unfair, but my impression is that he's not covered himself in glory here and I blame him more for instigating all of this than I do Andy). He could come back as Health Sec. I think Angela would do better as part of a Burnham cabinet. Give Keir the Foreign Office or some other grand office to keep the house in order.
On a wider point re Makerfield, it's really restored my own age old belief that the great British public will stand up for what's right when push really comes to shove. We don't like politicians like Nigel Farage or their brand of hatred in this country and we don't want them governing us. The great people of Makerfield showed the world that on Thursday.
We mustn't get complacent though. This was a real existential battle. The next one might not be, but we still need to make sure we win it. People that voted for us today might not next time if there's a non-Farage option and we need to use the time between now and then to prove to them that they made the right choice choosing Andy this week.
Keen to hear your thoughts/what others say.